Can Jamaica’s (JAM) Reggae Girlz advance from Group F of the World Cup? Yes but…
Here’s the scenario.
GIVEN the following Group F standings
— BRA on 3 points (+4 goal difference)
— FRA on 1 point (0 goal difference)
— JAM on 1 point (0 goal difference)
— PAN on 0 points (-4 goal difference)
AND GIVEN FRA faces BRA on Saturday July 29, 2023, followed immediately by JAM vs PAN
AND GIVEN JAM defeats PAN after one of the following happens
REQUIRED JAM beats PAN and goes to 4 points
— A. FRA beats BRA -> FRA and JAM 1st and 2nd, BRA 3rd (3 pts)
THEN JAM needs tie vs a desperate BRA who likely must win to get in UNLESS the unlikely happens where PAN shocks FRA in the other game – dangerous
— B. FRA ties BRA -> BRA 1st (4 pts), JAM 2nd (4 pts), FRA 3rd (2 pts)
THEN JAM needs only tie vs BRA but would have had to score more vs PAN than BRA or FRA – ( worst case scenario for JAM )
— C. BRA beats FRA – BRA 1st (6 pts and qualified), JAM 2nd (4 pts), FRA 3rd (1 pt)
THEN JAM needs draw vs BRA who can also win the group with just a draw ( best case scenario for JAM but most unlikely ).